TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 12:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in the Taca de Portugal tournament between Farense and AD Marco 09. The result will be determined based on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Participants can speculate on whether Farense will win, AD Marco 09 will win, or if the match will end in a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Farense vs AD Marco 09 professional Taca de Portugal soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three distinct outcomes are possible: Farense win, AD Marco 09 win, or a tie. If the match concludes with a clear victory for either team within regular time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The event explicitly excludes outcomes determined by extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the result after standard playing time.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at traditional sportsbooks due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that balance action on both sides, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s common to see this market reflect information and opinions not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook pricing, potentially offering opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and spread can indicate the level of confidence and disagreement among traders regarding the Farense vs AD Marco 09 match.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Farense vs AD Marco 09 match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in the market, and any outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly. It’s important to monitor news sources leading up to this date for any updates that might influence the market.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Farense or AD Marco 09 could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even significant pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements, reflecting shifts in trader sentiment regarding the Farense vs AD Marco 09 match.