TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 5:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on predicting whether either team will win the match by a margin exceeding a specific number of goals. The outcome hinges on the difference in goals scored between Famalicao and Alverca during regular time.
These markets resolve based on whether Famalicao or Alverca wins the match by more than a specified goal margin during the professional Liga Portugal soccer game between the two teams on October 12, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Two markets cover Famalicao winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and two markets cover Alverca winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Kalshi states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks are property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds, particularly as new information becomes available leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the spread in the Famalicao vs Alverca match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price fluctuates, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current price is determined by the highest bid and lowest ask, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Famalicao vs Alverca match, as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to view the official result and payout information on Kalshi following the event’s completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Famalicao or Alverca would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as a change in venue or a key player being ruled out, would also be significant catalysts. Overall, any information that alters the assessment of the likely spread will likely move this market.