TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 6:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Excelsior M. and Heerenveen, focusing solely on the result after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. It excludes outcomes determined during extra time or penalty shootouts, emphasizing the immediate conclusion of regulation time. The resolution depends entirely on which team secures a victory or if the match ends evenly within this timeframe.
The event determines the winner of a professional KNVB soccer match between Excelsior M. and Heerenveen scheduled for October 28, 2026, based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Excelsior M., a win for Heerenveen, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team winning within regulation time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regulation, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The platform explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the potential result of the Excelsior vs Heerenveen match. The current volume indicates the level of interest and confidence in each possible outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Excelsior vs Heerenveen match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the regulation time moneyline – meaning the winner of the match excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The platform will then verify the official result and settle the market accordingly, distributing payouts to traders who correctly predicted the winner.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable, or positive/negative press coverage surrounding either team, could also cause significant price movements. Furthermore, large trades by individual participants on Kalshi could temporarily impact the odds, reflecting their strong conviction about the match’s outcome.