TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 3:36 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the darts match between Sebastian Bialecki and Daryl Gurney in the European Tour, originally scheduled for October 16 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Bialecki' if Sebastian Bialecki wins against Daryl Gurney. This market will resolve to 'Daryl Gurney' if Daryl Gurney wins against Sebastian Bialecki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on official PDC results.
This market refers to the darts match between Sebastian Bialecki and Daryl Gurney in the European Tour, originally scheduled for October 16 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Bialecki' if Sebastian Bialecki wins against Daryl Gurney. This market will resolve to 'Daryl Gurney' if Daryl Gurney wins against Sebastian Bialecki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on official PDC results.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective that differs from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by individuals wagering their own capital, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a decentralized market responding to new information. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to significant news.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Bialecki vs Gurney match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, with no central authority setting the odds. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system that reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the European Tour match between Sebastian Bialecki and Daryl Gurney. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine which outcome is the winner. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result. It’s important to monitor the official event results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about either Sebastian Bialecki or Daryl Gurney’s preparation or physical state would likely cause movement. Public sentiment, reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also play a role, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions. Major upsets in other matches within the tournament could also indirectly impact this market, influencing overall confidence in certain players or strategies.