TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5PM ET
Volume:
$140,612
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure Ethereum price movement using different data sources (Binance ETH/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI index) and different measurement windows (1-hour candle close vs. 60-second average), creating potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
These are structurally different markets despite both referencing March 30, 5 PM ET. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (up or down). Kalshi offers 26 independent price-level thresholds. Binance spot price and ERTI index can diverge. Confirm your platform's exact data source and measurement methodology before trading or settling.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at March 30, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance ETH/USDT pair only. Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 26 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1199.99 to 2759.99). No directional binary; each threshold is independent. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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