TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Closed: Apr 16, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks whether the Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) by CF Benchmarks will trade above various price thresholds during a specific 4-hour window on April 16, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). The resolution is determined by the simple average of ERTI values during the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5:00 PM EDT, which falls within the event window. Each market represents a distinct price level, creating a ladder of binary outcomes rather than a single up/down bet.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and measurement methodologies. Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at a single point in time (5 PM EDT), while Polymarket references Chainlink ETH/USD price data over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). These sources may produce conflicting outcomes for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same bet resolves identically across platforms. On Kalshi, you are betting on ERTI crossing specific thresholds at exactly 5 PM EDT. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether Chainlink's ETH/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to its price at 4:00 PM ET. Price movements between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM, and between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM, will be weighted differently or ignored entirely depending on which platform you trade.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 16, 2026 exceeds any of 40 specified thresholds (ranging from 1499.99 to 3059.99). Each threshold is a separate binary market. Resolution is pinned to a single moment: 5 PM EDT. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Resolves UP if Chainlink ETH/USD price at the end of the 4-hour window (8:00 PM ET) is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning (4:00 PM ET). This is a single binary market measuring directional movement over the full 4-hour range, not a point-in-time index level. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream.'
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