TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 21 discrete price thresholds using CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average. These markets cannot produce aligned outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket is a binary Up/Down bet on Binance candle direction. Kalshi is a suite of 21 separate Yes/No markets on ERTI price levels. A price movement that resolves YES on Kalshi at one threshold may not align with Polymarket's binary direction. Arbitrage risk is high due to source and methodology divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves as a single binary market based on Binance ETH/USDT pair open vs. close for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 13. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Source is explicitly 'Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair' with data 'displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves as 21 separate binary markets, each tied to a discrete price threshold (1399.99 through 2879.99 in 40-point increments) based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI). Each market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of ERTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Source is 'CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI)' not Binance.
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