TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$67,099
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) from CF Benchmarks will close above various price thresholds during a specific 4-hour window on April 1, 2026. Kalshi has structured 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a distinct price level, all measuring the same underlying metric: the 60-second simple average of ERTI immediately before 5 PM EDT. Polymarket's rules are unavailable, creating a potential settlement divergence risk.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00PM-8:00PM ET), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at a single point in time (5:00PM EDT) using 60-second averaging. Additionally, Kalshi's 26 markets measure price levels at 5 PM EDT only, not directional movement, creating incompatible settlement frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. If you trade on Polymarket expecting directional movement (up vs down), your outcome may diverge from Kalshi because Kalshi measures absolute price thresholds at 5 PM only, not price change. Polymarket uses Chainlink; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks ERTI—different data sources can produce different settlement values, especially during volatile periods.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up or Down) comparing Chainlink ETH/USD at the start (4:00PM ET) versus end (8:00PM ET) of the specified time window. The market resolves YES (Up) if end price >= start price, otherwise NO (Down). Resolution source is explicitly Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd, not other spot markets.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi operates 26 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 1199.99 to 2759.99) at exactly 5:00PM EDT on April 1, 2026. These are absolute price-level markets, not directional movement markets. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks ERTI, not Chainlink.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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