TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:00 PM EST
Predict
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Estonia and Luxembourg, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Estonia" if Estonia score more goals than Luxembourg in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Estonia and Luxembourg score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Luxembourg" if Luxembourg score more goals than Estonia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Estonia and Luxembourg, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Estonia" if Estonia score more goals than Luxembourg in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Estonia and Luxembourg score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Luxembourg" if Luxembourg score more goals than Estonia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, it could indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular result. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the traders about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price rises, indicating increased confidence in its likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team wins the second half of the Estonia vs. Luxembourg match. Official results from the sporting event will be used to determine the winning outcome. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable information to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in the first half of the match would likely have a significant impact. Additionally, major tactical adjustments announced by either team's coach could also move the market. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators could also play a role, influencing how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes.