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419,492

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Estonia vs. Iceland
predict
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Estonia vs Iceland?

Volume:
$795,381

Tie

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 4:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$133,301
N/A
N/A
$111,142
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Estonia vs. Iceland)

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,331
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Draw

View
99%
75%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$15,960
$69,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

ISL

View
2%
60%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$578
$15,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Iceland

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$160,168
N/A
N/A
$73,869
Settled
No
polymarket

Iceland

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$133,623
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

EST

View
1%
15%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$188
$20,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Estonia

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$180,258
N/A
N/A
$131,531
Settled
No
polymarket

Estonia

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,701
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a draw in the Estonia versus Iceland UEFA Nations League soccer game. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 99.5%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether Estonia wins the game within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on October 6, 2026, as this is the scheduled date for the match and the end of the betting period for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Disagreement on resolution of a canceled game, specifically for the draw market.Hero tip: Consider the potential for differing resolutions on the draw market if the game is canceled. Polymarket will resolve to 'Yes', while Kalshi's resolution is unclear.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the draw market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, it resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a draw, and 'No' otherwise. Resolution source is official statistics, then Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus.
  • Kalshi: If Estonia or Iceland wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the respective win market resolves to 'Yes'. If the game ends in a tie, the draw market resolves to 'Yes'. The resolution of the draw market is not explicitly defined in the event of a cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 between Estonia and Iceland.

Kalshi

The markets collectively determine the result of the Estonia vs Iceland UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 6, 2026, based on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Estonia or Iceland occurs if the respective team wins the match within regulation time. If the game ends in a tie at the conclusion of regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the platform's guidelines. The resolution strictly considers the result within normal time, with no account for extra time or penalty phases, and explicitly states that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league or its associated entities.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 between Estonia and Iceland.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while this market reflects the collective belief of informed traders who have a financial stake in correctly predicting the outcome. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, particularly when a significant amount of volume is traded. However, sportsbooks may offer different markets or prop bets not available here. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Kalshi can influence trading behavior. These variations result in differing probabilities for the same event, offering opportunities for arbitrageurs to profit from the price differences.

Several factors could influence the probabilities in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions would likely cause shifts in the odds. Significant weather forecasts for the match location could also impact predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, may also play a role. Finally, large trades on either Polymarket or Kalshi can create momentum and move the market, especially with a volume of $795,381 already traded.