TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner
- Polymarket
Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner - Polymarket
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Resolved Oct 29, 2026
Closed: Oct 29, 9:55 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Cameron Norrie will advance against Daniil Medvedev in their Erste Bank Open tennis match, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to the outcome of “Erste Bank Open: Completed Match: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev”. Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the outcome will be determined by the completion of the Erste Bank Open fixture on November 5, 2026.
This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying levels of information and incentives. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own research and analysis. Discrepancies can arise from differing opinions on player form, potential injuries, or even subtle factors not fully captured by sportsbook algorithms. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional sources, leading to potentially more accurate predictions as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by the collective actions of all participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market continuously reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the Norrie vs Medvedev match.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Norrie vs Medvedev match as declared by the governing tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against widely available and reliable sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries to either Cameron Norrie or Daniil Medvedev would likely cause a substantial shift in probabilities. Updates on playing conditions, such as court surface changes or weather forecasts, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, unexpected announcements about coaching changes or player strategies might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Finally, even seemingly minor developments, like pre-match interviews revealing a player’s mindset, could contribute to movements in the market.