TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 3:24 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it might indicate that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, or that one venue has access to unique insights. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, but divergences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on new information and changing sentiment surrounding the Fery vs Musetti match.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Erste Bank Open match between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated performance statistics could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader tournament upsets, could also impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed participants or large-scale shifts in public opinion could lead to noticeable price movements in this market as traders react to new information.