TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These outcomes depend on whether Elversberg or Mainz secure a win with an advantage of more than certain goal margins, calculated only from the regular match timeframe.
The markets resolve to Yes if Elversberg wins by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, or if Mainz wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals in the Elversberg vs Mainz professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 30, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from the calculation of goal differences. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official ties to the Governing League, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the larger number of participants contributing to the prediction market price. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing sportsbook adjustments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time. The most actively traded outcome currently has a probability reflected in its price, and the overall volume indicates the level of interest in the Elversberg vs Mainz match.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Elversberg vs Mainz match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted data to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements might also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could create momentum and drive price movements. Public sentiment, reflected in media coverage and social media discussions, can also contribute to shifts in market probabilities, especially as the match draws closer.