TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming professional soccer match between Elversberg and Darmstadt. It focuses on how many goals will separate the two teams at the end of regular time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets tied to the same soccer match, each with specific victory margin thresholds. Two markets evaluate Elversberg’s potential win, requiring margins exceeding either 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while the other two assess Darmstadt’s chances, similarly demanding margins beyond 2.5 or 1.5 goals. All resolutions occur solely after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty phases. The governing rules emphasize that the platform hosting these markets maintains no official ties to the league or its intellectual properties, and all associated branding remains owned by the respective rights holders.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it might indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. The current price indicates the cost to take a position on a particular outcome, and traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the result of the Elversberg vs Darmstadt match.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Elversberg vs Darmstadt match as officially recorded by sports data providers. The final score difference will determine whether the outcome aligns with the contracts purchased in this market. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Elversberg or Darmstadt squads would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or significant pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could also shift the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the likely outcome of the Elversberg vs Darmstadt match has the potential to move this market.