TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between El Paso Locomotive FC and Sacramento Republic. The focus is on determining whether either team secures a victory within the standard 90-minute regulation time, including any added stoppage time, without extending into extra periods or penalty shootouts. The market also accounts for potential ties and scenarios where the match might be significantly altered or delayed.
The event involves determining the winner of a professional USL Championship soccer match between El Paso Locomotive FC and Sacramento Republic scheduled for October 17, 2026, based solely on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for El Paso Locomotive FC, a win for Sacramento Republic, or a tie. If either team wins within the specified time frame, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie after regulation time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined per the event rules. The resolution strictly adheres to the regulation time result, with no consideration for post-regulation proceedings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes of the El Paso vs Sacramento match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment surrounding the match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic match, as determined by the governing soccer league. The market will determine which outcome – a win for El Paso, a win for Sacramento, or a draw – actually occurred. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either El Paso or Sacramento would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift expectations. Weather conditions on match day, particularly if they are expected to be severe, might influence trading activity. Finally, any significant pre-match analysis from respected soccer commentators or analysts could sway the crowd's sentiment and affect the price of contracts in this market.