TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 6:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines whether either team wins by a margin exceeding a specified number of goals in the same NHL match. The outcome hinges on the goal differential between Edmonton and San Jose, factoring in all goals scored during regulation and overtime, with shootout goals counted as one goal for the winner.
Resolution depends on whether San Jose wins by over 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Edmonton wins by over 1.5 or 2.5 goals in the October 10, 2026 NHL game. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the scheduled start time, markets stay open and resolve based on the official result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Each market has a specific win margin threshold, and resolution is determined by whether the winning team’s goal margin exceeds that threshold.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that new information hasn't fully been incorporated into the sportsbook’s odds. It’s a useful exercise to compare the two and consider why any differences exist.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the spread in the Edmonton vs San Jose game. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Edmonton vs San Jose game, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts payout. The market will settle to 100 if the spread matches the contract purchased, and 0 if it does not. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could impact expectations and shift the odds. Significant media coverage or public sentiment regarding the Edmonton vs San Jose game could also play a role. Unexpected developments or late-breaking information are likely to cause the most significant movements in the market, as traders adjust their positions based on the latest available data.