TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 9:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The outcome depends on the margin of victory in a CFL football game between the Edmonton Elks and Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Specific point differentials determine whether the market settles positively, reflecting varying degrees of dominance by either team.
This market resolves based on the point differential from the Edmonton Elks vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats CFL game scheduled for October 9, 2026. Ten separate outcomes are defined by varying point spreads: Edmonton wins by over 20.5, 13.5, 7.5, 6.5, or 3.5 points; Hamilton wins by over 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, 13.5, or 20.5 points. If either team meets their respective spread threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent and evaluated solely against their stated spread conditions, with no additional performance criteria affecting resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the Elks will cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from initial sportsbook lines. However, as the event approaches, these odds often converge as more information becomes available and both markets incorporate new data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on the final point differential between the two teams. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by factors like news reports, injury updates, and overall market sentiment, creating a dynamic pricing environment that evolves until the event concludes.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Edmonton Elks versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the CFL, and the market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual point difference. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Elks or Tiger-Cats would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team performance during other games could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes, especially if they signal informed activity.