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341,376

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ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
polymarket
opinion

Will the ECB change interest rates in July 2026?

Total volume:
$559,309
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$219,720N/A

No change

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Jul 23, 10:21 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$219,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

No change

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps Increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$138,807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

25 bps Increase

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

50+ bps increase

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

25 bps decrease

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,523
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

50+ bps decrease

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether the European Central Bank will change its deposit facility rate at the July 2026 monetary policy meeting. The aggregated consensus probability for no change stands at 99.8%, drawing data from Polymarket and Opinion, and resolves according to the official ECB monetary policy statement from the July 22-23, 2026 Governing Council meeting. Watch the official ECB announcement on July 23, 2026, which will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve on the same official ECB announcement using identical rate-change measurement and rounding methodology, with consistent handling of edge cases including meeting postponement and cancellation.Primary resolution logic: Official European Central Bank monetary policy statement and press release from the July 22-23, 2026 Governing Council meeting

Core resolution logic:

  • Measure the change in the deposit facility rate upper bound (or the rate itself if not expressed as a range) announced at the July 2026 ECB meeting relative to the rate level prior to the meeting
  • Apply rounding rules: changes less than 25 bps round to 25 bps; changes 25 bps or greater round to nearest 25 bps, rounding away from zero at equidistance (e.g., 37.5 bps rounds to 50 bps)
  • Categorize outcome into one of five mutually exclusive brackets: 50+ bps increase, 25 bps increase, no change, 25 bps decrease, or 50+ bps decrease
  • If the meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting, resolve based on the postponed meeting outcome
  • If the meeting is cancelled or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, resolve to the no change bracket
  • Exclude emergency rate changes not resulting from the scheduled July 2026 meeting

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Rate expressed as range: If the deposit facility rate is defined by upper and lower bounds, the relevant change is measured against the upper bound only
  • Meeting postponement: If the July 2026 meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, resolution is based on the outcome of that postponed meeting
  • Meeting cancellation: If the July 2026 meeting is cancelled or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the no change bracket
  • Rounding at equidistance: When a rate change falls exactly between two rounding thresholds (e.g., 37.5 bps), round away from zero (37.5 bps becomes 50 bps)
  • Emergency rate changes: Rate changes announced outside the scheduled July 2026 meeting are not considered for resolution purposes
Timing: Resolution occurs upon publication of the official ECB monetary policy statement and press release from the July 22-23, 2026 Governing Council meeting, typically within hours of the meeting conclusionOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The ECB July 2026 interest rate market dashboard aggregates trader predictions across multiple platforms about the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision in July 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome focuses on whether the ECB will announce a 50 basis point or larger rate cut, while Opinion tracks finer granularity around 25 basis point moves. This cross-platform view lets you compare consensus odds and total liquidity across venues, revealing how different trader populations assess the likelihood of various rate-cut scenarios heading into that meeting.

Prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders, creating a dynamic consensus that often differs from traditional economist surveys. Market odds reflect live information flow, geopolitical shifts, and inflation data as they emerge, whereas analyst forecasts are typically published quarterly or monthly. For monetary policy decisions like this one, markets tend to price in tail risks and surprise scenarios more aggressively than consensus estimates, making them a useful cross-check against institutional research.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity depths, and fee structures that influence how prices form. Polymarket's focus on binary outcomes like 50+ basis point cuts may appeal to directional traders, while Opinion's granular 25 basis point buckets attract those seeking precision. Timing differences in when large positions are entered or exited, plus variations in how each platform's community interprets ECB communications, can create temporary spreads between venues—opportunities that sharp traders often arbitrage away.

Eurozone inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth figures will be primary drivers as the July meeting approaches. ECB communications, forward guidance, and speeches by policymakers offer real-time clues about rate-cut timing. Geopolitical shocks, currency movements, and global monetary policy shifts—especially US Federal Reserve decisions—can reshape expectations for European rate cuts. Market participants also watch credit conditions, wage growth, and energy prices, all of which influence how urgently the ECB may need to ease policy.