TOTAL VOLUME:
$93.4b
24H VOL:
$248,131,524
24H TRANSACTIONS:
895,496,382
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,100,731,277
787,063
Markets across
13,710
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
903
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
3%
chance
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether the World Health Organization will officially declare Ebola a pandemic at any point through the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of an Ebola pandemic occurring in 2026 stands at 4.5%. Resolution hinges on an explicit WHO characterization of Ebola as a pandemic in official communications, with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation alone insufficient to trigger a Yes resolution. Watch for any official WHO statements, reports, or press briefings between now and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the deadline for market resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than formal epidemiological forecasts. Polymarket currently prices Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 3.0%, representing decentralized market sentiment. This contrasts with traditional analyst or WHO assessments, which rely on disease surveillance, outbreak history, and containment capacity. Prediction markets incorporate real-time information and financial incentives for accuracy, while expert forecasts may emphasize structural risk factors. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more or less tail risk than institutional experts expect, offering a complementary perspective on pandemic probability.
On Polymarket, Ebola pandemic in 2026 is priced at 3.0%, meaning traders collectively assign that probability to the event occurring within the calendar year. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract trades continuously; buyers pay more to go long on the outcome, while sellers receive less. Price discovery happens through order-book matching and automated market maker mechanics. Volume of $646,360 indicates cumulative trading interest. Real-time price movements reflect breaking news, epidemiological reports, or shifts in trader conviction about outbreak risk, containment effectiveness, or seasonal factors affecting disease transmission.
The Ebola pandemic in 2026 market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, marking the end of the 2026 calendar year. Resolution hinges on whether an Ebola pandemic—defined by specific epidemiological and geographic criteria—occurs during that period. The outcome is determined by official health organization declarations, case counts, and geographic spread thresholds established at market creation. Traders should review the contract's full resolution criteria before trading, as edge cases around timing, location, and severity definitions can affect final settlement. Market operators typically consult WHO announcements and verified public health data.
Several catalysts could shift odds for Ebola pandemic in 2026. Confirmed outbreaks in new regions or unexpected case surges would likely increase probability. Advances in vaccine deployment, rapid-response protocols, or successful containment of emerging cases would decrease it. Seasonal factors affecting transmission, animal-to-human spillover events, or weakened public health infrastructure in vulnerable regions could trigger volatility. Scientific publications on viral evolution or transmissibility may influence trader positioning. Geopolitical instability affecting disease surveillance or healthcare access could amplify perceived risk. Real-time news flow, WHO alerts, and epidemiological modeling updates will drive continuous repricing throughout 2026.
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