TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether East Carolina will win their game against UAB by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives East Carolina winning by over 1.5 points a 78.0% probability. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the East Carolina vs UAB college football game originally scheduled for Oct 15, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves based on the final score and will be settled no later than the resolution date estimate of 2026-10-16.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the East Carolina vs UAB college football game scheduled for October 15, 2026. For markets where East Carolina wins by a specified margin or more, the market resolves to Yes if ECU meets or exceeds that margin; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, for markets where UAB wins by a specified margin or more, the market resolves to Yes if UAB meets or exceeds that margin; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on Kalshi and a sportsbook. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets and sportsbooks both have their own strengths and weaknesses in predicting event outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions as the event approaches. The current market reflects the collective assessment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the East Carolina vs UAB game, as reported by a major sports data provider, will determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the event has concluded and the results have been verified.
Several factors could influence this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the East Carolina or UAB teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed bettors could signal a change in sentiment and move the market accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.