TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:29 PM EST
Kalshi
A third professional soccer contest pits two teams against each other, with the match result determined exclusively by the events occurring within the normal playing time plus stoppage minutes.
The market resolves to Yes for the respective team market if that team wins the match within 90 minutes plus any stoppage time added by the referee, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when there’s significant uncertainty or new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on the likely outcome of the Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with buyers pushing prices higher and sellers pushing them lower. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time prediction of the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II match, as determined by the governing sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or shifts in player form for either Duisburg or Hoffenheim II could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving dynamics of this market.