TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ducks vs. Canucks
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to "Canucks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types. Kalshi resolves on the winner of the game (binary: either team wins = YES), while Polymarket resolves on multiple independent markets covering moneyline, spreads, and over/under totals. These are incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi's YES resolves if either team wins (guaranteed outcome), making it unsuitable for directional betting. Polymarket's moneyline, spread, and totals markets are independent and require separate analysis. If you bet YES on Kalshi, you will always win (barring cancellation). If you bet on Polymarket moneyline or spread, your outcome depends on which team wins and by how much.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if either the Ducks OR the Canucks wins the game. This creates a guaranteed YES outcome for any completed game, making the market non-predictive. Key quote: 'If VAN Canucks wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If ANA Ducks wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Offers five independent markets—moneyline (Ducks vs. Canucks), spread (Ducks -1.5), and four over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals). Each resolves based on final score, with shootout rules (one goal added to winning team). Key quote: 'If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to Ducks. If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to Canucks' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Ducks and Canucks combine to score [X] or more goals.'
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