TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL game between the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens scheduled for March 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), totals (combined goals), and spread (margin of victory) outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's four margin-of-victory markets are logically overlapping and create ambiguity about which market resolves for a given final score. Polymarket's spread and totals are clearly defined. Both platforms agree on moneyline winner and total goals thresholds, but differ in how margin outcomes are packaged and labeled.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's markets 1-4 should be treated as a single logical outcome split across four redundant contracts. A Ducks 3-1 win (2-goal margin) triggers Yes on both Kalshi markets 1 and 2. Use Polymarket's explicit -1.5 spread and totals for unambiguous trading. Verify Kalshi's intent before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four separate binary (Yes/No) markets on margin thresholds: Markets 1 and 3 resolve Yes if either team wins by >2.5 goals; Markets 2 and 4 resolve Yes if either team wins by >1.5 goals. Quote: 'If Anaheim wins by over 1.5 goals... resolves to Yes' and 'If Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals... resolves to Yes.' This creates logical overlap—a 2-goal margin triggers both markets 2 and 4.Polymarket:
Single spread market with ternary outcome: Canadiens (-1.5) resolves to Canadiens if Montreal wins by 2+ goals, otherwise Ducks. Totals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) resolve based on combined goals with explicit thresholds. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Canadiens if the Canadiens win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Ducks.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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