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411,051

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DP World Tour: Open de Espana Second Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

Who will lead DP World Tour: Open de Espana Round 2?

Volume:
$111,824

Grant Forrest

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 2:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Grant Forrest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,367
N/A
N/A
$6,585
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grant Forrest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Joe Dean

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,622
N/A
N/A
$19,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Ayora Fanegas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,169
N/A
N/A
$12,622
Settled
No
polymarket

Angel Ayora

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Hillier

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,885
N/A
N/A
$9,240
Settled
No
polymarket

Daniel Hillier

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Manuel Elvira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,764
N/A
N/A
$10,764
Settled
No
polymarket

Manuel Elvira

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Victor Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,698
N/A
N/A
$7,692
Settled
No
kalshi

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,569
N/A
N/A
$5,087
Settled
No
polymarket

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Pablo Larrazabal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,076
N/A
N/A
$5,076
Settled
No
polymarket

Pablo Larrazabal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Garcia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,379
N/A
N/A
$4,378
Settled
No
kalshi

Luke List

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,540
N/A
N/A
$2,540
Settled
No
polymarket

Luke List

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Joel Girrbach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,263
N/A
N/A
$1,518
Settled
No
polymarket

Joel Girrbach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hennie Du Plessis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,214
N/A
N/A
$2,214
Settled
No
polymarket

Hennie Du Plessis

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mikael Lindberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,676
N/A
N/A
$1,676
Settled
No
polymarket

Mikael Lindberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Adrian Otaegui

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,557
N/A
N/A
$1,557
Settled
No
polymarket

Adrian Otaegui

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 253

Description

This prediction market asks which golfer will be the leader after the second round of the 2026 Open de Espana golf tournament. Resolution depends on the lowest cumulative score to par, with tiebreakers based on round scores, eagles, birdies, bogeys, and then alphabetical order of last name.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents individual 'leader' markets for each player, while Polymarket has a single market for the overall Round 2 leader.Hero tip: Kalshi's markets require assessing the probability of *each* player leading, whereas Polymarket requires assessing the overall probability distribution of all players.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the single player with the lowest cumulative score after Round 2, with a comprehensive tie-breaking procedure. "This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2...with the lowest cumulative score to par."
  • Kalshi: Each player has a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if that player is the sole leader after Round 2. "If [Player Name] is the leader at the end of Round 2...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2 of the main tournament at the 2026 Open de Espana with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Open de Espana is cancelled, postponed after October 25, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to an individual golfer, and the outcome resolves based on whether that specific golfer is leading after Round 2 of the 2026 Open de España presented by Madrid. If the designated golfer is the sole leader, bets on 'Yes' win outright, and 'No' bets lose. Should multiple golfers tie for the lead—including the market’s named golfer—'Yes' bets receive a prorated payout of $1 divided by the number of tied players (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' bets pay the remainder (1 minus the 'Yes' payout). These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution regardless of which golfer is specified.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit from imbalances in betting, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individuals. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when there's significant public information or disagreement about a golfer’s chances. While both attempt to predict the same outcome, the mechanisms and underlying philosophies differ, resulting in potentially varying probabilities for this market.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and the specific incentives each platform offers. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Additionally, the 24-hour volume on each platform – currently $111,824 – can influence price discovery. Different liquidity levels and trading fees can also contribute to these discrepancies, even though both platforms are tracking the same event: who will lead after the second round of the Open de Espana.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. A golfer’s performance during the first round of the Open de Espana will be a major catalyst, with strong showings likely to increase their probability of leading after the second round. Weather conditions during the second round could also play a role, potentially favoring certain players or altering the course conditions. Any news regarding a golfer’s health or form, such as an injury or a particularly impressive practice session, could also move the market. Unexpected withdrawals from the competition could also shift probabilities, impacting this market.