TOTAL VOLUME:
$160.5b
24H VOL:
$126,815,103
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,097,314,247
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,606,042,768
379,340
Markets across
38,536
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,649
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win DP World Tour Championship?
Rory McIlroy
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 15, 2026
Latest in Sports
Time left: 02d:08h:08m
DP World Tour Championship: Rory McIlroy wins
$
Intro
This market tracks whether Rory McIlroy will win the 2026 DP World Tour Championship, the final event of the DP World Tour season. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 32.0% chance of McIlroy winning, with Jon Rahm following at 8.5%. The market resolves based on whether Gregorio De Leo wins the DP World Tour Championship, in which case the market resolves to Yes. Keep an eye on the tournament results beginning November 16, 2026, to see which player ultimately claims victory and determines the market’s outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket explicitly handles unlisted winners and ties, while Kalshi only lists conditions for listed winners and lacks a tie-breaking rule.Hero tip: If a player not listed on Kalshi is a strong contender, consider Polymarket's 'Any Other Player' market. Be aware of the tie-breaking rule on Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the listed player who wins, or 'Other' if an unlisted player wins. Tie-breaking is alphabetical by last name. Resolution deadline of November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Source: DP World Tour website (https://www.europeantour.com/).
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if any listed player wins. No explicit handling of unlisted winners or ties. No resolution deadline specified.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 DP World Tour Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the DP World Tour Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the DP World Tour Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by DP World Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by November 22, 2026 at 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the DP World Tour website (https://www.europeantour.com/).
Kalshi
Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, and the outcome depends solely on whether that golfer wins the DP World Tour Championship. If the designated golfer finishes first, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Additionally, if any golfer (including those not listed in individual markets) forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate before teeing off, all Tournament Winner and End of Round Leader markets resolve to No. For other markets such as Finishing Position, Make the Cut, Head-to-Head, and 3-Ball, contracts are resolved at Fair Market Value. These secondary rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent handling of non-participation scenarios.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets aggregate the knowledge and insights of many participants, incentivized to make correct predictions. Sportsbooks, while employing experts, are still subject to biases and limitations in their modeling. The 0.0 difference between the implied probability on Polymarket and a major sportsbook can sometimes be significant, suggesting that the market identifies information not fully incorporated into traditional betting lines. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance, leading to differing opinions on the probabilities. Trading volumes also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 DP World Tour Championship? at 31.0%, while Kalshi leans toward DP World Tour Championship: Rory McIlroy wins at 31.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the value of observing multiple venues.
This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the DP World Tour Championship, as officially declared by the DP World Tour, will determine the outcome of this market. Resolution will be based on the official results published by the tour, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning golfer. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the tournament progresses, as these will be the basis for settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding a golfer's health, form, or withdrawal from the tournament would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions at the venue could also influence the odds, as certain players may perform better in specific conditions. Unexpected performance during the early rounds of the championship will undoubtedly shift probabilities, with strong showings from underdogs potentially driving up their prices. Monitoring these events and player statistics will be crucial for informed trading in this market.
