TOTAL VOLUME:
$72.8b
24H VOL:
$993,581,931
24H TRANSACTIONS:
701,598,168
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,921,072,503
637,349
Markets across
13,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,309
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
48%
VS.
Kalshi:
52%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Execration and Carstensz in The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Markets span series outcome, individual game winners, in-game mechanics (barracks destruction, Roshan kills, day/night cycle timing, kill streaks), and game count totals across three platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Scope divergence (Polymarket covers granular game and in-game mechanics; Kalshi and Limitless cover series outcome only) combined with source fragility (Polymarket has 2-hour DotaBuff grace + fallback; Limitless has hard deadline; Kalshi has no explicit source or deadline). Kalshi's binary logic (both outcomes = Yes) is also structurally ambiguous.Hero Tip:
Use Polymarket for all game-level and in-game mechanic resolution (game winners, barracks, Roshan, day/night, kill streaks). For series outcome, Polymarket and Limitless align on team-win logic, but Limitless imposes a hard July 19 deadline without fallback. Kalshi's binary structure is unclear and should be avoided. Ensure DotaBuff publishes results within 2 hours; if not, Polymarket will use credible reporting (video evidence acceptable). For Limitless, confirm official result by July 19 23:59 UTC or face "Other" resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Comprehensive resolution framework covering series outcome, individual game winners, and in-game mechanics (barracks, Roshan, day/night cycle, kill streaks). Primary source: DotaBuff with 2-hour grace period; fallback to credible reporting and video evidence. Forfeits/walkovers mid-series count if series completes; mid-game forfeits resolve based on state at stoppage. Remakes resolve based on remade game only. Key Quote: 'If https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.'Kalshi:
Binary Yes/No outcome markets only (Carstensz wins = Yes; Execration wins = Yes). No explicit edge-case handling, source specification, or deadline. Logical structure ambiguous: both outcomes resolve Yes, creating potential confusion. No game-level or in-game mechanic coverage.Limitless:
Team-specific win markets (Execration wins = YES; Carstensz wins = YES). Forfeits/disqualifications count as declared winner. Hard deadline: July 19, 2026 23:59 UTC; no official result = 'Other.' No fallback source specified. No game-level or in-game mechanic coverage. Key Quote: 'If the match is not completed with an official result by July 19, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."'
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Execration and Carstensz in the The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 19 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Execration" if Execration win the match against Carstensz. This market will resolve to "Carstensz" if Carstensz win the match against Execration. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Dota 2 match scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. The market resolves to Yes if either Carstensz or Execration wins the match. Each team has a corresponding market outcome that resolves to Yes upon that team's victory.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Execration and Carstensz in the The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier 2026, scheduled for Jun 19, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 19, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, creating dynamic odds that adjust continuously. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which employ oddsmakers and margin, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from many participants. This often produces sharper, more efficient pricing—especially for niche esports events. However, liquidity varies; lower-volume markets may show wider spreads than established sportsbooks, and arbitrage opportunities can emerge between platforms.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing price discovery to lag between them. Kalshi may emphasize one outcome while Limitless reflects a contrasting view, creating temporary spreads of 100.0 percentage points or more. Regulatory differences, user interface design, and promotional incentives also shape participation patterns. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays prevent instant convergence, allowing meaningful price divergence to persist throughout the market's lifecycle.
This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific result—whether tied to match winner, game-level performance, or individual player achievements—depends on which outcome you are tracking within this market. Resolution occurs after the Dota 2 match concludes and results are documented by tournament organizers and esports news sources, ensuring accuracy before funds are distributed to winning traders.
Team roster changes, player substitutions, or injury announcements can shift odds significantly. Recent tournament performance, patch updates affecting hero balance, and scrim results shared by insiders often trigger repricing. Media coverage and expert analysis influence retail trader sentiment, while large trades from known professionals signal conviction shifts. Odds also tighten as the match date approaches and uncertainty resolves. Monitor team social media, esports news outlets, and in-game statistics for catalysts that reshape trader positioning before the event concludes.
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