TOTAL VOLUME:

$113.7b

24H VOL:

$134,181,349

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,296,569,804

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,121,091,514

320,911

Markets across

30,976

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,951

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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World Cup Winner

Volume:
$6,308,331,812

Spain

all

3 markets

Kalshi

100%

Polymarket

100%

Predict

99.9%

consensus

100%

+0%

spread

99.9-100%

(0.1pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

98%98.5%99%99.5%

No volume data

Aug 12

Aug 19

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 6:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Result

Intro

This market tracks which national team will win the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Across Limitless, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, and Kalshi, Spain commands a consensus probability of 98.9%, with Argentina at 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA information or credible reporting consensus, with the market resolving immediately to No if the winning team is eliminated during knockout play, or to Other if the tournament is canceled or incomplete by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Watch for Spain's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds leading up to the tournament conclusion on or around July 20, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation/delay deadlines diverge significantly across platforms (Limitless: July 31 vs Predict/Polymarket: October 13), and scope coverage varies from 10 specific teams (Predict) to 66+ teams (Kalshi) to undefined (Opinion). Kalshi and Opinion lack explicit cancellation clauses.Hero tip: Do not assume uniform resolution across platforms. Limitless has the earliest cancellation deadline (July 31, 2026). If the 2026 World Cup experiences delays between July 31 and October 13, Limitless will resolve NO while Predict and Polymarket remain open. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if tournament completion is uncertain. Recommend hedging Limitless positions separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Covers 66 specific teams (Curacao, South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Ghana, Georgia, Cameroon, Australia, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Austria, Qatar, Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, Costa Rica, Ukraine, Scotland, Poland, South Korea, Morocco, Ecuador, Chile, Switzerland, Portugal, Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Iran, China, UAE, Turkey, Romania, Paraguay, Ireland, Senegal, Japan, Denmark, Colombia, Canada, Uruguay, Netherlands, Panama, Haiti, Jordan, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Northern Ireland, Wales, Serbia, USA, Argentina, France, Spain, England, Germany, Brazil, Italy, Croatia, Belgium, Czechia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Congo DR, Iraq). Resolves YES if any listed team wins. No explicit cancellation clause provided.
  • Predict: Covers 10 specific teams (USA, Morocco, Mexico, Canada, Paraguay, Ghana, Tunisia, Jordan, Uzbekistan, South Africa, Qatar) plus Other category. Resolves to Other if tournament canceled or incomplete by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolves immediately to NO if team is eliminated. Key quote: 'If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to Other.'
  • Limitless: Covers Ghana only. Resolves to NO if tournament canceled or incomplete by July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC (72 days earlier than Predict/Polymarket). Resolves immediately to NO if Ghana is eliminated. Key quote: 'If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently cancelled or has not been completed by July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to NO.'
  • Polymarket: Covers 40+ teams (Spain, Switzerland, Team AM, Curacao, Germany, Colombia, Portugal, New Zealand, Haiti, Jordan, Netherlands, England, France, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, Iran, Ghana, Algeria, Italy, Turkey, Team AI, Mexico, Norway, Team AG, Team AH, Ecuador, Morocco, Panama, Cape Verde, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Team AN, Egypt, Sweden, Team AJ, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Qatar, Australia, Canada, Scotland, Uzbekistan, South Africa, Team AL, Austria, Croatia, Team AK, USA, Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, Japan, Tunisia, Iraq, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Congo DR, Team AO) plus Any Other Team category. Resolves to Other if tournament canceled or incomplete by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolves immediately to No if team is eliminated.
  • Opinion: Lists 15 teams (Portugal, Netherlands, Japan, USA, England, Morocco, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Brazil, Germany, Norway, Argentina, Colombia) with no resolution rules, cancellation clause, or edge-case handling provided. Insufficient metadata for settlement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Each outcome resolves to Yes if the corresponding national team wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. The market covers all participating nations, with each nation's victory in the tournament triggering a Yes resolution for that specific outcome.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "YES" if Ghana wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." If at any point it becomes impossible for Ghana to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to "NO." If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently cancelled or has not been completed by July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO." The resolution source for this market is official information from FIFA.com however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading decentralized prediction markets. It tracks which national team traders believe will lift the trophy, with a combined group volume of $6,308,331,812 and recent 24-hour activity of $315,061,493. The dashboard displays live probability estimates for each nation, historical price movements, and cross-platform consensus, allowing you to compare how different market communities price each team's championship chances as the tournament approaches.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds from continuous trader activity and real-money stakes, often reflecting crowd sentiment and emerging information faster than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks employ professional oddsmakers and manage liability, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from thousands of participants. For the 2026 World Cup, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to different risk models, liquidity constraints, and the speed at which new data—injuries, qualifying results, or geopolitical factors—gets priced in. Direct comparison tools help bettors identify value across both channels.

Key catalysts include World Cup qualifying results, which confirm or eliminate nations and shift perceived strength; major player injuries or transfers affecting squad depth; managerial changes at top teams; geopolitical developments affecting participation; and head-to-head matchups during group and knockout stages. Surprise qualifying upsets, unexpected retirements of star players, and tactical innovations can rapidly reprrice favorites. As the tournament approaches, each match outcome compounds market moves. Real-time tracking across Polymarket and Kalshi captures these shifts, helping traders identify emerging consensus and react to breaking news before odds fully adjust.