TOTAL VOLUME:
$72.8b
24H VOL:
$993,581,931
24H TRANSACTIONS:
701,598,168
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,921,072,503
637,349
Markets across
13,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,309
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
48%
VS.
Kalshi:
52%
Time left: 28d:10h:44m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Predict
At 20.2¢ buys you 495 shares | Odds: 20% Total Payout: $495 | Net Profit: $395 Multiplier: 4.95x | ROI: 395% APY not meaningful 28 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 19.8¢ buys you 505 shares | Odds: 20% Total Payout: $505 | Net Profit: $405 Multiplier: 5.05x | ROI: 405% APY not meaningful 27 days to resolution
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 19.1¢ buys you 524 shares | Odds: 19% Total Payout: $524 | Net Profit: $424 Multiplier: 5.24x | ROI: 424% APY not meaningful 27 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks the probability that France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus shows France at 20.2% to claim the title, with a second formulation at 20.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA sources and credible reporting on which national team wins the tournament. Watch for France's performance through the group stage and knockout rounds, with the tournament concluding around July 20, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation deadline mismatch across platforms. Limitless uses July 31, 2026 cutoff while Polymarket and Predict use October 13, 2026 cutoff. Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation deadline, creating resolution ambiguity.Hero Tip:
If tournament completion is delayed and approaches July 31, 2026 UTC, Limitless will resolve NO while other platforms remain open. Arbitrage risk exists if tournament is delayed but eventually completed between July 31 and October 13. Verify Kalshi's cancellation policy directly before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves to Other if tournament not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolves to No immediately if team is eliminated. Primary source: official FIFA information or credible reporting consensus.Predict:
Resolves to Other if tournament not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolves to No immediately if team is eliminated. Primary source: official FIFA information or credible reporting consensus.Limitless:
Resolves to NO if tournament not completed by July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC (72 days earlier than other platforms). Resolves to NO immediately if team is eliminated. Primary source: official FIFA.com information or credible reporting consensus.Kalshi:
Resolves to Yes only if specified team wins 2026 Men's World Cup. No explicit cancellation deadline provided. Implies No for non-winning outcomes but cancellation handling is undefined.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Each outcome resolves to Yes if the corresponding national team wins the 2026 Men's World Cup. The market covers all participating nations, with each nation's victory in the tournament triggering a Yes resolution for that specific outcome.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless derive odds from continuous trader activity and real-money stakes, often reflecting crowd sentiment and emerging information faster than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks employ professional oddsmakers and manage liability, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from thousands of participants. For the 2026 World Cup, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to different risk models, liquidity constraints, and the speed at which new data—injuries, qualifying results, or geopolitical factors—gets priced in. Direct comparison tools help bettors identify value across both channels.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Limitless operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Kalshi shows 5.3% for its top outcome, while Limitless reflects for its leading team, a spread of percentage points. These gaps arise from variations in trader composition, order-book depth, fee structures, and the timing of major news. Smaller or less liquid markets may also experience wider bid-ask spreads, causing temporary price misalignments. Monitoring both platforms reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps identify which communities hold stronger conviction on specific nations.
The market resolves on Jul 20, 2026, following the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. Resolution is determined by which national team wins the final match and is officially crowned World Cup champion by FIFA. Markets remain open for trading throughout all qualifying rounds, group stages, and knockout phases, allowing odds to shift as teams advance or are eliminated. Early resolution may occur if a team is mathematically eliminated from contention, though the primary resolution event is the tournament's final whistle.
Key catalysts include World Cup qualifying results, which confirm or eliminate nations and shift perceived strength; major player injuries or transfers affecting squad depth; managerial changes at top teams; geopolitical developments affecting participation; and head-to-head matchups during group and knockout stages. Surprise qualifying upsets, unexpected retirements of star players, and tactical innovations can rapidly reprrice favorites. As the tournament approaches, each match outcome compounds market moves. Real-time tracking across Kalshi and Limitless captures these shifts, helping traders identify emerging consensus and react to breaking news before odds fully adjust.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.