TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 12:51 PM EST
Polymarket
This market asks whether Game 2 of the best-of-three Dota 2 match between Aurora and 1win in the BLAST Slam Playoffs will end during daytime hours. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Game 2: Ends in Daytime?”. Resolution will be based on game data from https://www.dotabuff.com. Keep an eye on the start time of the Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match on October 8, 2026, as that will determine whether Game 2 can conclude during daylight hours.
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and 1win in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, theoretically offering a more accurate assessment of probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the likelihood of each team winning the Aurora vs 1win Dota 2 match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the event's result. The current price reflects the wisdom of the crowd regarding the Aurora vs 1win Dota 2 match.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the best-of-three series between Aurora and 1win as reported by the tournament organizers of the BLAST Slam Playoffs. The winning team, as officially declared, will determine the outcome of this market, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when this market is finalized.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to the Oct 8, 2026 resolution. Unexpected news regarding player form, potential roster changes for either Aurora or 1win, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on analyst predictions could all cause the market to react. In-game performance during the series itself, such as a dominant early game by one team, will also likely have a substantial impact on trading activity and the implied probabilities reflected in this market. Any new information regarding the teams’ strategies could also shift the odds.