TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Dortmund and Frankfurt. Bettors can speculate on whether Dortmund, Frankfurt, or neither team (a tie) will win the match within regular time. The resolution depends solely on the result after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Dortmund vs Frankfurt professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for the Dortmund market occurs if Dortmund wins in regular time; a 'Yes' for Frankfurt if Frankfurt wins in regular time; and a 'Yes' for Tie if the match ends level after regular time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect resolution. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Bundesliga or its governing bodies, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can express that view by trading on Kalshi, potentially driving the odds closer to what they perceive as the true probability. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional bookmakers, especially as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price of a 'Frankfurt wins' contract, for example, will increase if more traders believe Frankfurt is likely to win, and decrease if they believe Frankfurt is less likely to win. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the official result of the Dortmund vs Frankfurt match, as reported by a recognized sporting authority. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome occurred. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure an accurate and fair resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Dortmund or Frankfurt would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all shift expectations. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also play a role. As the match draws closer, any updates from reliable sources will be closely watched by traders on Kalshi.