TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Dortmund and Bremen, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. It reflects how decisively one team outperforms the other within the standard match duration.
The event resolves based on the outcome of the Dortmund vs Bremen professional DFB Pokal soccer game scheduled for October 27, 2026. Four distinct outcome scenarios are evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Dortmund wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the market resolves accordingly for Dortmund. Conversely, if Bremen wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, the market resolves for Bremen. The governing rules emphasize that the match must conclude within regular time for any resolution to apply, and explicitly state that the platform is not officially affiliated with the league or teams involved.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Therefore, you might find that the implied probability of an outcome in this market diverges from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available and more people trade. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual outcome. The current price indicates the market's expectation of the likelihood of each outcome, and you can see how this expectation has changed over time by reviewing the price history.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Dortmund vs Bremen match as determined by official sports data providers. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which side of the spread was correct. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will not. The precise details of the outcome will be publicly available following resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Dortmund or Bremen would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to player availability, such as suspensions or late fitness tests, would also be a major catalyst. Public perception and shifts in betting patterns from external sources can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.