TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 4:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Dortmund and Bremen, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold set in each market. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential outcomes for the Dortmund vs Bremen professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 9, 2026, each defined by a specific goal differential threshold. Market resolutions depend exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct markets exist: one where Dortmund wins by more than 2.5 goals, another where Dortmund wins by more than 1.5 goals, a third where Bremen wins by more than 1.5 goals, and a fourth where Bremen wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the respective condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets operate independently, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks, logos, or brand names.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages or promotional considerations into their lines, whereas this market is driven purely by individuals wagering on their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd disagrees with the experts, offering potentially valuable insights for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Dortmund vs Bremen match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to represent the most up-to-date assessment of the likelihood of different results. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions and informed opinions.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Dortmund vs Bremen match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined at the conclusion of the game. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Dortmund or Bremen would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also contribute to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades from individual participants could temporarily shift the market in a particular direction, reflecting a strong conviction about the outcome.