TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time. Different thresholds for victory margins determine various possible resolutions.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo in their scheduled Liga de Expansion MX soccer match on October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Dorados winning by more than 2.5 goals, Dorados winning by more than 1.5 goals, Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a specific market resolution condition, where the exact margin of victory determines which market settles as 'Yes.' The governing league’s official result, as recognized by the Liga de Expansion MX, will be the definitive source for resolving all markets. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can provide a broader understanding of the potential outcome and identify opportunities where you believe the market is mispricing the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the changing consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo match, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts on the Kalshi dashboard following the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly shift expectations. Additionally, real-time updates during the match itself, such as early goals or red cards, will likely cause rapid price movements. Public sentiment, reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, as traders react to new information and adjust their positions accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help you identify potential trading opportunities.