TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 8:17 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between the Doosan Bears and the Lotte Giants, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether either team wins by a specific number of runs or more, providing different thresholds for resolution.
The event resolves based on the margin of victory in the Doosan Bears vs Lotte Giants Korea KBO game scheduled for October 6, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: the Lotte Giants winning by over 2.5 runs, the Lotte Giants winning by over 1.5 runs, the Doosan Bears winning by over 1.5 runs, and the Doosan Bears winning by over 2.5 runs. Each outcome corresponds to a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met. The resolution hinges solely on the run differential at the conclusion of the game, with no additional conditions or tiebreakers applied. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the Doosan Bears will cover the spread, the odds will shift accordingly, potentially moving against the initial sportsbook line. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective insight of prediction market participants. It's important to compare and contrast to inform your own analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Doosan Bears will cover the spread against the Lotte Giants. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated sentiment of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on the probability of the Bears exceeding the spread, and the market price reflects the current consensus view. As more trades occur, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability of that outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Doosan Bears versus Lotte Giants game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the Bears covered the spread as defined by the market conditions at the time of settlement. The final result will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the outcome. It's important to note that the official game results are the sole determinant of the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting lineups for either the Doosan Bears or the Lotte Giants could significantly shift trader sentiment. Weather conditions on game day, particularly if they favor one team's hitting or pitching style, could also play a role. Unexpected announcements about pitching matchups or strategic decisions by team management could also move the market. Overall, any information that alters the perceived probability of the Bears covering the spread has the potential to impact trading activity.