TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between two soccer teams in a professional league match. It focuses on the margin of victory, reflecting how decisively one team outperforms the other. The outcome depends on the difference in goals scored after the regulation time of the game.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in a professional EFL League One soccer match between Doncaster and Burton, scheduled for October 10, 2026. Resolution is determined solely by the full-time score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty shootouts. Four distinct outcome conditions are defined: Doncaster winning by more than 2.5 goals, Doncaster winning by more than 1.5 goals, Burton winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Burton winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions, if met, will resolve the event affirmatively. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi, the platform hosting this event, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling on both venues. It's common to see prediction markets converge towards the true probability as more information becomes available and trading volume increases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Doncaster vs Burton match. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Doncaster will win by a certain margin, the price of that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the event's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Doncaster vs Burton match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official data sources and widely accepted sports results. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 10, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or even weather conditions could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable, or positive/negative press coverage surrounding either team, could lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, any major upsets in other related matches or league standings could indirectly impact traders' perceptions of the Doncaster vs Burton match, causing fluctuations in the market.