TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$1,695
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price increases or remains flat during a 4-hour window on March 28, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream to compare end-of-period price against start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured at 5:00 PM EDT with a 60-second averaging window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different events: Polymarket resolves on price direction over a 4-hour window using Chainlink data, while Kalshi resolves on a single price level at 5:00 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks data. Kalshi's 36 conditions are logically redundant and lack a clear No resolution path, raising data integrity concerns.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets, not hedges. Polymarket is a 4-hour directional bet (Up/Down). Kalshi's structure is ambiguous—36 identical Yes conditions with no explicit No outcome suggests either a platform error or a misunderstanding of the market design. Contact Kalshi support to clarify whether this is a binary Yes/No market or a series of price-level ladders. Do not cross-trade without explicit confirmation of Kalshi's resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional price-change market over 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Resolves Up if Chainlink DOGE/USD at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Single binary outcome. Source: Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream.
- Kalshi: 36 price-level conditions, all resolving to Yes if CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds stated thresholds (0.0049999 to 0.1849999). No explicit No condition documented. Single snapshot at 5:00 PM EDT. Source: CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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