TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 5:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Dinamo Zagreb versus Anderlecht Europa League match scheduled for October 15, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome conditions are defined: Dinamo Zagreb winning by more than 2.5 goals, Dinamo Zagreb winning by more than 1.5 goals, Anderlecht winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Anderlecht winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each condition independently determines a 'Yes' resolution for its respective market if achieved. The governing rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, and may be influenced by promotional considerations. This market, on Kalshi, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. As a result, the implied probabilities in this market can sometimes diverge from sportsbook odds, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the event’s likelihood, or identifying value discrepancies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information or changing sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body, establishing the final spread. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The exact payout amount is determined by the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 15, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Dinamo Zagreb or Anderlecht could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-match analysis, could all contribute to movement in this market. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.