TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game between Detroit and Carolina. Participants can bet on whether each player's reception count will meet certain thresholds, with payouts scaling based on performance.
The event consists of multiple parallel scalar markets, each focusing on a different player’s reception count in the Detroit vs Carolina Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. The maximum Yes payout is $1.00, and No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. All markets resolve to Yes if the specified conditions are met for each respective player. The structure ensures that payouts are capped and directly tied to the exact reception counts, with identical calculation methods applied uniformly across all player-specific markets.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess the probability of an event occurring. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook is mispricing a particular outcome, they may trade on Kalshi to capitalize on the discrepancy, potentially driving the market price closer to their assessment of the true probability.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, similar to a stock exchange. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the total receptions in the Detroit versus Carolina game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market efficiently incorporates information as traders react to news and analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both the Detroit Lions and the Carolina Panthers will be sourced from official NFL game statistics. The market will then determine the outcome based on the total combined receptions achieved by players on both teams during the game. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, based on publicly available data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Injury reports for key receivers on either team would be significant, as they directly impact the potential for receptions. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing games and thus reception totals. Unexpected news regarding team strategies or quarterback performance could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player availability or coaching decisions could lead to substantial movement in this market.