TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of individual players in an upcoming football game between Detroit and Carolina, focusing specifically on how many receiving yards each player accumulates during the match. Participants can bet on whether a player will achieve certain yardage thresholds, with payouts increasing as the achieved yards rise. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about player performance in a competitive game setting.
Each market evaluates player receiving yards in the Detroit vs Carolina Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each player, Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule based on every 10 receiving yards achieved, with payouts ranging from $0.0000 for 0–9 yards up to $1.0000 for 200 or more yards. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling function of the yards achieved, capped at 200 yards. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, and any negative receiving yards result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All Yes payouts are capped at $1.00, and each market resolves to Yes upon completion. The structure ensures that payouts increase non-linearly with yardage, rewarding accurate predictions of higher performance levels while maintaining a maximum return limit.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts, though both aim to predict the same outcome. Comparing these odds can offer valuable insights into differing perceptions of the game’s potential.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event draws nearer. The current price indicates what the collective market believes about the total receiving yards.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the Detroit vs Carolina game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals, as reported by official league sources, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the official data is released. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process based on established game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Detroit or Carolina teams would be significant catalysts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor passing or running, could also shift expectations. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or offensive play-calling strategies could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could impact trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.