TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully score through passes. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will reach certain benchmarks for offensive contributions during the match.
The event evaluates whether designated quarterbacks, Bryce Young and Jared Goff, achieve specified thresholds of passing touchdowns in the Detroit vs Carolina Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and a minimum number of passing touchdowns (ranging from 1 to 5+). If the named player records the exact number of or more passing touchdowns as specified in the market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if a player is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based solely on the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both players and all touchdown thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news impacts perceptions. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Detroit versus Carolina game will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results as the resolution date approaches, as this will determine the payout for winning contracts in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role in how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes in this market.