TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often they throw interceptions. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will make multiple errors in passing plays during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the players' accuracy and decision-making under pressure.
The event evaluates whether specified quarterbacks, Bryce Young and Jared Goff, throw a certain number of passing interceptions in the Detroit vs Carolina Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and a minimum threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+). If the named player records at least the specified number of interceptions, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, and the resolution for each depends solely on the performance criteria outlined for the specific player and threshold in that market.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often include a 'vig' or commission, impacting the implied probability. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent a more accurate probability assessment. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge, potentially offering a more refined view of the likely outcome. It’s common to see differences, especially as the event approaches and more traders participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Detroit versus Carolina game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and their contract payouts shortly after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. News regarding quarterback injuries to either team, changes in weather conditions that might favor a run-heavy offense, or even strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staffs could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about defensive schemes or key player matchups could also impact the perceived likelihood of interceptions. Any significant development impacting the passing game for either the Detroit or Carolina teams has the potential to move this market.