TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes achieve predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or teams during the full game (including overtime) between Detroit and Carolina, using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the designated participant exceeds their respective point threshold. Players who do not participate or lack a recorded fantasy value are considered to have scored zero points. The final point totals used for resolution are those published by Sleeper at the market's expiration, without post-expiration adjustments or rounding. The scoring system awards points for various in-game achievements such as passing/rushing/receiving yards and touchdowns, kicks, defensive plays, and special teams contributions, with specific point values assigned to each action as detailed in the provided scoring format.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. Often, you'll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for comparison, and discrepancies may present opportunities for arbitrage or informed trading in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders directly buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain fantasy point total, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated and responsive to new information. The goal is to create a market where the prices accurately reflect the probability of each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals for the Detroit vs Carolina game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on officially recorded fantasy points awarded by major fantasy sports providers. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the actual result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Detroit or Carolina teams would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or rushing offenses, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also play a role. Furthermore, significant shifts in public perception, as reflected in expert analysis or social media sentiment, could drive changes in volume and pricing within this market.