TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 9:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks which player will score the first touchdown in the Detroit versus Carolina professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives Chuba Hubbard a 99.0% probability of scoring first. The market will resolve based on whether Tetairoa McMillan scores the first touchdown in the Detroit vs Carolina Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on team injury reports leading up to the game on October 4, 2026, as any changes to the starting lineup could significantly impact player probabilities.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or team scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player and team markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all individual player and team markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant's chance to score the first touchdown.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by individuals willing to buy or sell based on their beliefs. You may find that this market offers different probabilities than those offered by sportsbooks, potentially revealing insights not captured by conventional methods. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations of the same information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different players scoring the first touchdown. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that player scoring first, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, leading to dynamic price adjustments. This creates a real-time assessment of each player's likelihood of achieving this outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who officially scores the first touchdown in the Detroit versus Carolina game, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game logs and verified against credible public sources. Any disputes regarding the official scoring record will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for either team, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence expectations about the game plan and scoring opportunities. Pre-game reports on player matchups and defensive strategies might also lead to adjustments in the probabilities. Finally, any significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could indicate informed opinions and move the market accordingly.