TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:39 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Detroit and Calgary. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, reflecting the competitiveness of the match. Outcomes are determined by the final score and specific threshold conditions.
The event consists of four markets, each tied to the same NHL game between Detroit and Calgary scheduled for October 24, 2026, but each market resolves based on different goal-differential thresholds for either team winning. If Calgary wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Detroit wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the result still applies based on the final score. However, if the game is cancelled or does not start within that 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of which specific threshold market they may have engaged with.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the insights of many individual traders. As more information emerges—such as injury reports or team news—the prediction market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events, as the market incorporates a wider range of perspectives than a single bookmaker.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of each outcome, as their profits depend on correctly predicting the final result. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the Detroit versus Calgary game, as determined by official NHL results, will be used to determine the winning contracts. Any adjustments or official rulings made by the NHL regarding the game’s final score will be considered in the resolution process. Traders will be able to view the confirmed outcome and their resulting payouts on Kalshi following the event’s completion.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major player injuries to key players on either the Detroit or Calgary teams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected starting goalie announcements, coaching changes, or significant team performance fluctuations in preceding games could also influence trader sentiment. News regarding team morale, travel disruptions, or even weather conditions affecting game play could contribute to price movement. Any late-breaking information that alters perceptions of each team’s competitive advantage has the potential to move the market.