TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 8:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks touchdown performances by specific players in an upcoming football game, applying consistent protective contract rules across all markets. The protected designation ensures fair resolution handling for players who participate in the first half but not afterward, unless they meet their touchdown thresholds.
All markets share a unified protected contract structure: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player achieves the required touchdown count, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria and includes overtime periods. Passing touchdowns do not count toward player totals, while team defense/special-teams selections are settled on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception applying to them. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own analysis and information. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed traders who identify discrepancies. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, especially as event time approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Detroit versus Arizona game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. This allows for a clear and definitive outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Detroit or Arizona teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team dynamics could influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations as they express their views on the likely outcome of the game.