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Closed: Oct 11, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks how many rushing yards Jahmyr Gibbs gains in the upcoming Detroit vs Arizona football game. Payouts increase linearly with each yard Gibbs rushes for, up to a maximum reward cap.
If Each Yes contract pays $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded by Jahmyr Gibbs during the Detroit vs Arizona Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. As more information becomes available—such as injury reports or weather forecasts—the prediction market odds can adjust more quickly and efficiently than sportsbook lines, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard thresholds. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that threshold being exceeded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price discovery. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Detroit versus Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage statistics, as reported by the official NFL data sources, will determine which contracts settle in the money. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the rushing yardage exceeded the specified thresholds. It’s important to monitor official sources as the game concludes to understand the final settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team are a primary driver, as the absence of a star player would drastically alter expectations. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could favor a more run-heavy offensive approach. Game-day news, like changes to defensive strategies or starting lineups, could also influence trading activity. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the teams’ rushing capabilities could move the market.