TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on reception totals for several Detroit and Arizona players in their forthcoming game. Payouts vary depending on each player's performance, with specific tiers for different reception counts.
Similar to the San Francisco vs Seattle market, payouts are determined by a cubic function of the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000 applies, with 'No' contracts receiving $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. Resolution depends exclusively on official reception statistics from the game.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If a significant number of bettors believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. This can provide a different perspective on the potential outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that total occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both the Lions and the Cardinals will be sourced from official game statistics. The market will settle based on the combined total receptions achieved by players on both teams during the game. It’s important to note that any adjustments or corrections to official statistics will be reflected in the resolution of this market, ensuring accuracy and fairness.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key receivers on either the Lions or the Cardinals would be significant catalysts. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing games, could also drive movement. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or offensive play-calling strategies could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking information about player availability or team tactics could lead to adjustments in the market price as traders react to the new data.