TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of various Detroit and Arizona players in an upcoming football game, focusing on how many receiving yards each player accumulates. Participants can bet on whether each player will meet or exceed specific yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance.
These markets resolve based on the receiving yards accumulated by designated players during the Detroit vs Arizona Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. Each market operates as a scalar contract where Yes positions pay $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. No positions receive $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract holdings, meaning a holder of a larger position receives a larger share of the total payout. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout per contract is $0.20 and the No payout is $0.80; at 200 yards, both payouts equal $0.50. If the player records zero yards, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All markets are independent, and each resolves separately according to the performance of its respective player.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often diverging from initial sportsbook lines as new information becomes available. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, but can be influenced by biases or attempts to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to trade contracts, so the price is driven by collective belief. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional odds, especially closer to the event date as more traders participate and refine their assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Essentially, the more people who believe a certain receiving yard total will be exceeded, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yard statistics from the Detroit vs Arizona game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each player will be tallied, and the contracts corresponding to the accurate yardage ranges will pay out. The market will determine which contracts reflect the actual results of the game, based on official data sources. It's important to monitor the game results following the event to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers on either the Detroit or Arizona teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the price of contracts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if a storm is predicted, could also influence expectations for passing yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or adjustments to offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders reassessing their predictions and adjusting their positions in this market.