TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
This set of markets allows participants to bet on the performance of individual players in an upcoming football game between Detroit and Arizona. Each market is tied to a specific player, with payouts determined by the player's fantasy points scored during the game. The structure incentivizes predictions based on player performance rather than the overall game outcome.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract where the payout for 'Yes' contracts is directly proportional to the player's Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points scored in the specified game, multiplied by $0.01 per point and rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up. The maximum payout for 'Yes' contracts is capped at $1.00, while 'No' contracts pay $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. If a player scores negative points or is not assigned a fantasy-point figure by Sleeper for the specified week, they are deemed to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a 'Yes' payout of $0.00 and a 'No' payout of $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger payouts based on the same rate. All markets are independent, each tied to a different player's performance in the same game.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to dynamically adjust probabilities based on new information and collective insight. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or simply the incentive structures of each venue. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in sentiment than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Detroit vs Arizona game, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective beliefs of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Detroit vs Arizona game as officially recorded. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the actual outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's result, based on widely available and trusted sources.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in other games, or shifts in public perception of either team’s strengths and weaknesses, could also drive trading activity. Major announcements related to the teams or key players, or even significant betting patterns observed elsewhere, have the potential to move this market before Oct 12, 2026.