TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which Detroit player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Arizona. It covers all potential scoring contributors, including individual players and the defensive unit, providing a comprehensive view of possible outcomes for the game's opening score.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Detroit player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap is taken, resolution depends solely on whether that participant scores the first touchdown. If Detroit fails to score any touchdowns during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other participant markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent settlement criteria regardless of which specific player or unit is referenced.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. It’s common to see the odds on Kalshi adjust as new information emerges, potentially leading to a different probability assessment than traditional sportsbooks. However, as the event approaches, the odds on both may converge, especially if there’s strong agreement on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood; a higher price indicates a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders respond to news, injuries, or other relevant information, creating a real-time probability forecast for the first Detroit touchdown.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown of the game, as recorded by official game statistics. The platform will verify the outcome against reliable sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding a contract for the player who scores the first touchdown will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other players will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for the Detroit Lions, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or wind, could also influence the expected game plan and affect which players are likely to be targeted in the red zone. Finally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also move this market as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.