TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or team unit will score the first touchdown for the Arizona team in an upcoming football game against Detroit. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game performance.
These markets determine whether a specified Arizona player or the team's defensive unit scores the first touchdown in the game against Detroit. For any player or unit market, if the designated scorer achieves the first touchdown, that market resolves to Yes. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a player takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome depends solely on whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Arizona touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Arizona Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player and unit markets resolve to No. This structure ensures that markets are resolved based on actual game events, with specific conditions for player participation and touchdown scoring.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as the market dynamically adjusts to changing perceptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and contracts trade at the best available prices. The price represents the probability of the event occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective assessment of the likelihood of Arizona scoring their first touchdown. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence participants have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine whether Arizona scores a touchdown before their opponent does. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Traders should monitor the game closely as the final minutes could significantly impact the outcome and the market’s final settlement.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either team, particularly Arizona’s offensive players, would likely cause movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the game plan and scoring potential. Additionally, in-game performance, such as Arizona’s early offensive drives or defensive stops, will directly impact the price as traders react to the unfolding events. Public sentiment and expert analysis could also play a role, though the market’s price will primarily reflect trading activity.